Will the economic recovery survive the end of emergency stimulus?

IN “GAME OF THRONES”, a fantasy drama, a duel takes place between Khal Drogo, a fearsome warrior, and a rival. Khal Drogo comes off barely scathed, suffering only a scratch to his chest. But the wound festers, weakening the fighter. A few scenes later, he falls off his horse and eventually dies.

Many economists worry that the recovery in the rich world could face a similar fate. The past 18 months of lockdowns have left surprisingly few economic scars. But has the damage from covid-19 been avoided, or merely deferred? As stimulus schemes put into place last year come to an end, the question may soon be answered.